The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has maintained its global growth forecast for 2024 at 3.2%. This decision reflects anticipated economic improvements in China and India, while projections for advanced economies remain unchanged. According to the IMF’s annual report, the growth outlook for 2025 has been slightly adjusted upward to 3.3%.
Global economic growth is predicted to remain historically low, lagging behind the 3.8% average from 2000 to 2019. Key concerns include strained fiscal trajectories in several countries and the risks of geo-economic fragmentation.
Here are some global highlights by world region:
Latin America and the Caribbean:
The growth forecast for this region has been slightly revised downward, now anticipating a growth rate of 1.9% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025. The region has shown resilience to COVID-19 and economic shocks, but fiscal policies needed to rebuild reserves and control inflation have slowed growth.
Key Economies:
• United States: Growth forecast for 2024 is 2.6%, a slight reduction of 0.1 percentage points.
• Eurozone: Projected to grow by 0.9%, with slight improvements in Germany (0.2%) and Spain (2.4%).
• China: Growth forecast raised to 5%, driven by strong domestic demand and exports.
• India: Expected to grow by 7%, up by 0.2 percentage points.
Argentina: Argentina is experiencing a significant economic recession, with a contraction of 3.5% expected in 2024, worsening from an earlier estimate of -2.8%. A recovery to 5% growth is anticipated in 2025. Inflation is expected to decrease significantly, from around 211% in 2023 to 140% by the end of 2024, due to austerity measures by President Javier Milei.
Brazil and Mexico:
• Brazil: Growth is expected at 2.1% in 2024, slightly lowered due to the impacts of severe flooding, with a forecast of 2.4% growth in 2025.
• Mexico: Growth is projected at 2.2% in 2024 and 1.6% in 2025, both revised down by 0.1 percentage points.
The IMF’s forecast for 2024 reflects a complex global economic landscape, with some regions showing resilience and recovery, while others face ongoing challenges. The outlook underscores the need for careful fiscal management and vigilance against economic fragmentation risks.
